January 13, 2026
By Our Correspondent
Analysts at JPMorgan argue that, once volatility is taken into account, Bitcoin appears undervalued relative to gold. Their case rests on a narrowing gap in risk. The ratio of Bitcoin’s volatility to gold’s has fallen to 1.8, implying that Bitcoin now carries only 1.8 times the risk of the yellow metal. The change owes less to Bitcoin’s newfound calm than to gold’s recent turbulence: a sharp rally to record highs in October pushed gold’s volatility higher, making it, paradoxically, the riskier asset.
On this basis JPMorgan estimates that Bitcoin’s market capitalisation—currently around $2.1trn—would need to rise by more than two-thirds to reflect the revised risk balance. That would correspond to a price close to $170,000 per coin. Though the bank stresses that this is a mechanical exercise rather than a forecast, it nevertheless sees “significant upside” for Bitcoin over the next six to twelve months.
Such optimism sits uneasily alongside a growing sense of restraint elsewhere in the market. Bitcoin slipped below $100,000 this week, breaking a psychological support level for the first time in four months. In response, several analysts have trimmed their price targets. Macroeconomic headwinds, including trade-related uncertainty, and the violent sell-off on October 10—which produced the largest 24-hour liquidation in the cryptocurrency’s history—have tempered expectations. Few now believe Bitcoin will reclaim $125,000 by the end of 2025.
Galaxy, an investment firm, cut its 2025 Bitcoin forecast to $120,000 from $185,000, citing a rotation of capital into rival narratives, shifting market dynamics, and heavy selling by large holders, who offloaded some 400,000 coins in October. Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of research, argues that Bitcoin has entered what he calls a “maturity era”, characterised by institutional participation, passive inflows and declining volatility.
If so, the days of explosive rallies may be over. With exchange-traded funds absorbing liquidity and smoothing price movements, future gains are likely to be steadier—and slower—than the cryptocurrency’s more feverish past would suggest.
