April 11, 2025
By Our Correspondent
In response to the United States’ recent imposition of extensive trade tariffs, China has signalled potential countermeasures, which could inadvertently lead to increased capital flow into cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin (BTC). Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, suggests that actions by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) might serve as a catalyst for a renewed crypto market surge.
On April 8, 2025, Hayes remarked on X (formerly Twitter), “If not the Fed, then the PBOC will give us the Yahtzee ingredients,” implying that the Chinese central bank’s policies could ignite a bullish trend in the crypto market. He further speculated that should the PBOC devalue the yuan, it could prompt Chinese capital to flow into Bitcoin, a pattern observed in 2013 and 2015.
Ben Zhou, co-founder and CEO of Bybit, echoed this sentiment, noting that China might devalue its currency to counteract U.S. tariffs. Historically, such devaluations have led to significant Chinese capital inflows into BTC, suggesting a potential bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency.
The yuan has experienced a downward trend against the U.S. dollar since 2022. Notably, in August 2015, China devalued the yuan by nearly 2%, marking one of the most substantial single-day drops in decades. During that period, Bitcoin witnessed increased interest, though the direct correlation remains a topic of debate. Similarly, in August 2019, when the yuan fell below the symbolic 7:1 ratio against the USD, Bitcoin’s price surged by 20% in the first week of that month, leading analysts to believe that Chinese investors were turning to Bitcoin as a hedge.
Analysts suggest that wealthy Chinese individuals have previously utilised cryptocurrencies to preserve wealth and circumvent stringent capital controls. Currency devaluations can erode trust in central banking systems, potentially driving individuals toward decentralised alternatives like Bitcoin.
The U.S. administration’s recent announcement to escalate tariffs against China has been met with firm resistance from Beijing. The Chinese Commerce Ministry stated, “If the US implements escalated tariff measures, China will resolutely take countermeasures to defend its own interests.”
In light of these developments, the interplay between international trade policies and cryptocurrency markets remains a focal point for investors and analysts alike. The potential devaluation of the yuan and subsequent capital flight into digital assets could have significant implications for the global financial landscape.
